In case you haven’t checked out the Main Page, Sandy and I are officially 14 days away from flying to China and 18 days away from meeting Wren. Between getting our home ready for Wren, getting ourselves ready for the trip and getting ready to take 3+ weeks off from the office, there’s precious little time for anything else. It’s amazing, we had nearly 3 years to get ready for this trip and we still find ourselves woefully short of hours.
This will be the last installment of the Referral Estimator until we go to China. I’m not sure what life will be like once we get home, but I’ll do my best to update this page in early November. Hopefully, there will be a big batch for all of you who are still waiting.
Historical Data
In Spring 2007, I started building a series of 4 (and later added a fifth) formula for determining when I might get my referral. I soon determined that while none of them were perfect, that when I averaged them together, they gave me a date that was pretty darn close to the actual cutoff date.
If this is to be a credible predicting tool, I feel the need to report what the past results have shown. So, before telling you what I think is going to happen next, here’s a quick breakdown of what the formulas predicted in the past, what the actual date was and how far off my “Averaged” predicted date was:
| Model A | Model B | Model C | Model D | RQ Poll | Average | Actual | Off By |
| MAR 07 | 10/31/2005 | 10/25/2005 | 10/20/2005 | 10/25/2005 | | 10/25/2005 | 10/24/2005 | -1 day |
| APR 07 | 11/3/2005 | 10/26/2005 | 10/31/2005 | 11/3/2005 | | 10/31/2005 | 10/26/2005 | -3 days |
| MAY 07 | 10/28/2005 | 11/1/2005 | 11/2/2005 | 11/4/2005 | | 11/1/2005 | 11/1/2005 | Exact! |
| JUN 07 | 11/7/2005 | 11/7/2005 | 11/8/2005 | 11/11/2005 | | 11/8/2005 | 11/7/2005 | -1 day |
| JUL 07 | 11/11/2005 | 11/17/2005 | 11/14/2005 | 11/17/2005 | | 11/14/2005 | 11/14/2005 | Exact! |
| AUG 07 | 11/21/2005 | 11/24/2005 | 11/21/2005 | 11/24/2005 | | 11/22/2005 | 11/21/2005 | -1 day |
| SEP 07 | 11/28/2005 | 11/29/2005 | 11/28/2005 | 12/1/2005 | | 11/29/2005 | 11/25/2005 | -2 days |
| OCT 07 | 12/1/2005 | 12/12/2005 | 12/2/2005 | 12/7/2005 | 12/5/2005 | 12/5/2005 | 11/30/2005 | -3 days |
| NOV 07 | 12/5/2005 | 12/16/2005 | 12/5/2005 | 12/7/2005 | 12/9/2005 | 12/8/2005 | 12/8/2005 | Exact! |
| DEC 07 | 12/16/2005 | 12/20/2005 | 12/13/2005 | 12/16/2005 | 12/15/2005 | 12/16/2005 | 12/14/2005 | -2 days |
| JAN 08 | 12/20/2005 | 12/22/2005 | 12/19/2005 | 12/22/2005 | 12/20/2005 | 12/20/2005 | 12/19/2005 | -1 day |
| FEB 08 | 12/22/2005 | 12/27/2005 | 12/22/2005 | 12/26/2005 | 12/22/2005 | 12/23/2005 | 12/27/2005 | +3 Days |
| MAR 08 | 1/4/2006 | 1/4/2006 | 12/30/2005 | 1/4/2006 | 1/5/2005 | 1/3/2006 | 1/4/2006 | +1 Days |
| APR 08 | 1/12/2006 | 1/6/2006 | 1/9/2006 | 1/11/2006 | 1/10/2006 | 1/10/2006 | 1/9/2006 | -1 Days |
| MAY 08 | 1/12/2006 | 1/13/2006 | 1/12/2006 | 1/17/2006 | 1/12/2006 | 1/13/2006 | 1/12/2006 | -1 Days |
| JUN 08 | 1/17/2006 | 1/18/2006 | 1/17/2006 | 1/20/2006 | 1/20/2006 | 1/18/2006 | 1/20/2006 | +2 Days |
| JUL 08 | 2/7/2006 | 1/27/2006 | 1/25/2006 | 2/6/2006 | 1/26/2006 | 1/27/2006 | 1/25/2006 | -2 Days |
| AUG 08 | 2/6/2006 | 2/7/2006 | 2/6/2006 | 2/9/2006 | 2/6/2006 | 2/6/2006 | 1/27/2006 | -2 Days |
| SEP 08 | 2/7/2006 | 2/9/2006 | 2/8/2006 | 2/10/2006 | 2/7/2006 | 2/8/2006 | 2/9/2006 | -1 Day |
| OCT 08 | 2/15/2006 | 2/14/2006 | 2/14/2006 | 2/16/2006 | 2/15/2006 | 2/14/2006 | 2/15/2006 | -1 Day |
Next Month's Expected Cutoff
OK, so it’s a 4-day batch. Not as large as we’d like but definitely bigger than some of the more recent batches. Here’s what November looks like:
| Model A | Model B | Model C | Model D | RQ Poll | Average |
| NOV 08 | 2/21/2006 | 2/23/2006 | 2/20/2006 | 2/22/2006 | 2/21/2006 | 2/21/2006 |
So, it looks like Model C is showing the 20th, Model A and my analysis of the RQ polls show the 21st, Model D shows the 22nd and Model B is the most optimistic, showing the 23rd. Average them up and it looks like the 21st is the most likely cutoff. So, if you were logged in on or before that date, I would guess that you are in. If you were logged in on the 22nd or 23rd, here’s hoping that something good is coming your way. For the rest of you, keep the faith and remember that you will at least move a little bit closer to the front of the line!
Looking Forward
Tonja Shelton, the official “example LID of the Wren Site Estimator” should also have a reason to be a little bit happier today. My projections show her (she has a 3/3/06 LID) having a January 2009 LID. Columns A and C show her in the February, while Columns B and D show her making January. My analysis of the RQ polls show her just, just missing January, but if you average things together, she (and the rest of her 3/3 LIDers) just squeeze into January. Let's wish her (and you) some luck.
| Model A | Model B | Model C | Model D | RQ Poll | Average |
| DEC 08 | 2/27/2006 | 3/1/2006 | 2/23/2006 | 3/1/2006 | 2/27/2006 | 2/27/2006 |
| JAN 09 | 3/1/2006 | 3/6/2006 | 2/28/2006 | 3/8/2006 | 3/2/2006 | 3/3/2006 |
| FEB 09 | 3/6/2006 | 3/14/2006 | 3/3/2006 | 3/15/2006 | 3/6/2006 | 3/8/2006 |
| MAR 09 | 3/14/2006 | 3/22/2006 | 3/8/2006 | 3/22/2006 | 3/9/2006 | 3/15/2006 |
| APR 09 | 3/27/2006 | 3/27/2006 | 3/13/2006 | 3/29/2006 | 3/13/2006 | 3/17/2006 |
Again, I’m not promising anything, I’m just trying to give everyone a tool they can use to create best and worst case scenarios. If you have any questions, feel free to send me an e-mail to davecurewitz@yahoo.com.
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